The CIPD’s Labour Market Outlook is a forward-looking indicator of the UK labour market. Based on a quarterly survey of 2,000+ employers, it provides analysis on  recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions combined with unique insights on labour market topics.

The LMO is published every February, May, August and November. Its insights feed into our consultations and engagement with UK Government and policy-makers.

Labour Market Outlook – Summer 2024

Overview

This quarter, expected pay awards for the next 12 months have fallen to 3%, down from 4% last quarter. They have fallen across all sectors, with the gap in future pay awards between public and private sectors persisting. The average private sector pay award is expected to be 3% in the coming 12 months, compared with 2.5% in the public sector. However, the new UK Government has since accepted recommendations from independent pay review bodies and confirmed above-inflation pay rises of 4.75%–6% for a large proportion of the public sector workforce.

Meanwhile, the net employment balance, has fallen into negative territory (–1) in the public sector for the first time since winter 2017/18. This means more employers in the sector are looking to decrease than increase staff levels in the next three months. This quarter's survey was conducted during the election period in the UK, amid Conservative plans to cut the civil service to fund defence. With Labour, who had strongly opposed the cuts, now in power, it may be that the situation could be short-lived.

Read on for our latest labour market data and analysis on employers’ recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions this summer.

Labour Market Outlook - Summer 2024

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Net employment balance edges down to pre-pandemic levels

Net employment balance falls slightly

The net employment balance – the difference between employers expecting to increase staff levels in the next three months and those expecting to decrease – edged down slightly to +18 this quarter.

Public sector employment confidence below zero

The net employment balance in the public sector has fallen to −1, meaning that more employers in the public sector are looking to decrease than increase staff levels in the next three months.

Over a fifth of public sector plan to shrink staff

Over a fifth of public sector employers (22%) are looking to decrease staff levels in the next three months.

Hard-to-fill vacancies remain prevalent

Among employers surveyed, 37% have hard-to-fill vacancies. These vacancies are significantly higher in the public (48%) than the private sector (34%).

Median expected pay drops to 3%

The median expected basic pay increase has fallen to 3% (from 4% last quarter). Expected pay awards in the next 12 months remain lower in the public sector (2.5%) compared with the private sector (3%). However, the new UK Government has since confirmed above-inflation pay rises of 4.75%–6% for a large proportion of the public sector workforce.

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